EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1054 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2014 VALID 12Z MON JUN 02 2014 - 12Z FRI JUN 06 2014 THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME IMPROVED AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND SOME OF THE OVERNIGHT RUNS AT LEAST THROUGH DAY 6/THURSDAY...WITH THE OBVIOUS CAVEAT THAT THE BEST AGREEMENT IS FOUND NOT SURPRISINGLY ON DAYS 3 TO 4/MONDAY TO TUESDAY. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS CLEARLY SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON MONDAY TO TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM MINNESOTA TO THE GREAT LAKES. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AIR ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES BY TUESDAY WHILE COOLER AIR MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BY DAY 5/WEDNESDAY...THE COOL FRONT HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH COOLER AIR ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...AND SUMMERY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTO PARTS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC NEAR THE OHIO RIVER INTO MISSOURI AND KANSAS...WHERE THE FRONT SHOULD FOCUS THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF THE WESTERN GULF INTO TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. ON DAYS 6 TO 7/THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ALTHOUGH THERE WAS TOO MUCH VARIABILITY FROM INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS BY DAY 7 TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN ANY SPECIFIC FEATURE. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND CONSISTENCY WITH DAY 5 AND 6 FORECASTS WERE USED MORE THAN ANY SPECIFIC OVERNIGHT FORECAST MODEL TO COME UP WITH THE DAY 7 FORECAST. WITH A SUPPRESSED RIDGE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS...A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST US WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SOURCE OF WEAK IMPULSES CROSSING THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH RELATIVELY COOL AIR REMAINING OVER THE NORTHWEST...WARM AIR REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IN BETWEEN FROM THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL PLAINS...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND POSSIBLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AGAIN LATE IN THE FORECAST. IN GENERAL...THE COMBINATION 00Z ECMWF/00Z EC ENSEMBLE MEANS SLIGHTLY DOMINATED THE BLENDS THROUGH DAY 5 WITH THE 00Z NAEFS/06Z GFS ROUNDING OUT THE LESSER PORTION OF THE BLENDS WITH ABOUT A 60/40 MIX. BY DAY 6/THURSDAY...A 50/50 MIX OF THE ABOVE WAS USED WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF WAS COMPLETELY DROPPED BY DAY 7 AND A 80/20 MIX OF THE EC AND NAEFS MEAN VERSUS THE 06Z GFS WAS USED FOR THE BLEND. KOCIN