EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 251 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014 VALID 12Z THU JUL 03 2014 - 12Z MON JUL 07 2014 ...PATTERN AND GUIDANCE ASSESSMENT INCLUDING SYSTEMS BEING MONITORED BY THE NHC... WPC MEDIUM RANGE SURFACE FRONTS/PRESSURES AND 500 MB PROGS ARE PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A COMPOSITE BLEND OF THE 18 UTC GFS/GEFS MEAN AND 12 UTC ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THESE SEEM REASONABLY COMPATABLE THU-SAT...BUT WEIGHTING WAS SHIFTED TO THE ENSEMBLES BY NEXT SUN/MON DUE TO INCREASING FORECAST SPREAD. AN ACTIVE AND AMPLIFIED WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ON TAP THIS WEEK. THIS INCLUDES A THREAT FOR HOLIDAY PERIOD LOW DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK UP OFF THE SERN/ERN US AS MONITORED BY THE NHC AND ALSO TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS NOW OVER THE ERN PACIFIC. MEANWHILE...A WARMING W-CENTRAL CONTINENT MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS AS A COOLING/DRYING MID-UPPER LEVEL DOWNSTREAM TROUGH AND LEAD FRONTAL ZONE ACTS TO FOCUS ERN US AND TRAILING SRN US TIER CONVECTION. UPSTREAM...GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY ACROSS THE NERN PAC/WRN CANADA AND SHOWS MODEST MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND A COOLING SURFACE FRONT WORKING UNDERNEATH INLAND ACROSS THE NWRN US AND LATER PERIOD THE N-CENTRAL US. RAINFALL WILL BE LIMITED OVER NWRN TERRAIN...BUT MAY BE SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE OVER AZ/NM/CO. INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE UPPER DIVERGENCE AND ENERGY MAY ALSO SUPPORT SOME CONVECTION/MCS DEVELOPMENT LATE PERIOD OVER THE N-CENTRAL STATES. SCHICHTEL