EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1136 AM EDT SAT JUL 05 2014 VALID 12Z TUE JUL 08 2014 - 12Z SAT JUL 12 2014 ...OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREFERENCES... A MODERATELY AMPLIFIED ERN NOAM TROUGH IS FCST TO BECOME MORE SHALLOW BY FRI-SAT AS WRN CONUS/SRN CANADA RIDGING WEAKENS SOMEWHAT AND A PORTION OF THE NERN PAC TROUGH ENERGY REACHING THE PAC NW COAST/BC BY THU CONTINUES ACROSS SRN CANADA. THIS EVOLUTION MAY YIELD A BROAD AREA OF HIGH HGTS ACROSS THE SRN 2/3 OF THE CONUS FROM THE W-CNTRL STATES INTO THE SOUTHEAST BY NEXT SAT... WHILE MODEST RESIDUAL TROUGHING SHOULD PERSIST NEAR THE PAC NW COAST. DURING DAYS 3-4 TUE-WED MODELS/ENSEMBLES ARE FAIRLY AGREEABLE IN PRINCIPLE BUT CONTINUE TO DISPLAY SHRTWV/SFC DETAIL ADJUSTMENTS EACH CYCLE ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE ERN NOAM MEAN TROUGH. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND 00Z-06Z GEFS/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS OFFER A GOOD MAJORITY CLUSTER WITH MOST ASPECTS OF THE FCST EARLY IN THE PERIOD WHILE THE 06Z GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE ERN PAC TROUGH AND PSBLY A LITTLE FAST/AMPLIFIED WITH SHRTWV ENERGY REACHING NEW ENGLAND WED-THU. DAYS 5-7 THU-SAT FEATURE INCREASING SPREAD WITH FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PAC ACROSS SRN CANADA AND THE NRN CONUS. THE EXTENT TO WHICH WRN PAC TYPHOON NEOGURI IMPACTS THE FCST LATE IN THE PERIOD IS WORTH MONITORING... THOUGH DOWNSTREAM SPREAD IS ALREADY IN THE PROCESS OF INCREASING BEFORE SOLNS DIVERGE WITH THE HANDLING OF NEOGURI. THE 00Z ECMWF LOOKS PARTICULARLY EXTREME RELATIVE TO MOST OTHER MODELS/ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... TRENDING OUT OF PHASE FROM THE E-CNTRL PAC INTO THE PAC NW AND LEADING TO MORE AGGRESSIVE HGT FALLS/FAST COLD FRONT PROGRESSION ACROSS THE NRN TIER CONUS. ON THE OTHER HAND 06Z GEFS TRENDS OFFER SUPPORT TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE MEANS THAT SHOW MORE NRN TIER HGT FALLS THAN THE 00Z GEFS MEAN BY DAY 7 SAT. THE 06Z GFS IS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THIS SCENARIO. DUE IN PART TO QUESTIONABLE HANDLING OF UPSTREAM NERN PAC ENERGY THE 00Z GFS WAS FASTER WITH SRN CANADA FLOW. THE 00Z GFS WAS ALSO QUICKEST TO STRENGTHEN RIDGING CNTRD OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES LATE IN THE PERIOD. OVERALL AN AVERAGE OF THE 06Z GEFS/00Z ECMWF MEANS PROVIDES THE MOST REASONABLE STARTING POINT FOR THE DAYS 5-7 THU-FRI FCST. ...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS... OVER THE WEST EXPECT ACTIVITY ASSOC WITH THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE SOMEWHAT BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD WITH MORE OF A FOCUS OVER THE CNTRL-SRN ROCKIES LATE IN THE WEEK. SOME LOCALLY HVY RNFL IS PSBL. HGT FALLS REACHING THE NORTHWEST/MODEST WEAKENING OF GRTBASIN RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD BRING A COOLING TREND TO NRN/CNTRL PARTS OF THE INTERIOR WEST AFTER SOME PLUS 10-15F ANOMALIES FOR MAX TEMPS ON TUE AND PERHAPS INTO WED. SOME OF THIS HEAT MAY EXTEND INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS FOR A COUPLE DAYS OR SO AHEAD OF A LATE WEEK COLD FRONT. OVER THE CNTRL-ERN STATES THE BEST FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE A WAVY FRONTAL BNDRY HEADING TOWARD THE NERN/MID ATLC COAST WITH THE TRAILING PART OF THE FRONT STALLING OVER THE S-CNTRL PLAINS THEN LIFTING BACK AS A WARM FRONT. HEAVIEST RNFL SHOULD BE WITHIN AN AREA FROM THE CNTRL/S-CNTRL PLAINS TO THE SRN MID ATLC WHILE MORE ISOLD HVY ACTIVITY IS PSBL EARLY IN THE PERIOD FROM THE UPR OH VLY/ERN GRTLKS INTO NEW ENGLAND. TRAILING HIGH PRES SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF COOL/DRY CONDS TO THE MIDWEST/GRTLKS AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST. CLOUDS/RNFL SHOULD KEEP CNTRL PLAINS HIGH TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AS WELL UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SOME LOCATIONS E OF THE APLCHNS MAY SEE HIGHS UP TO 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL TUE-WED. RAUSCH