EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 107 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014 VALID 12Z MON JUL 28 2014 - 12Z FRI AUG 01 2014 ...ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL AIR TO PUSH ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF COAST NEXT WEEK... ...OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE PREFERENCES... ANOTHER WELL-ADVERTISED HIGH-AMPLITUDE MERIDIONAL EVENT... SUPPORTED BY A STRONG TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH TRIPLET OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC... WILL PORTEND MUCH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE CENTRAL/EASTERN STATES WHILE THE WEST RETAINS ITS GRIP ON SUMMER /OR PERHAPS THE OTHER WAY AROUND/. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND MULTI-CENTER ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN IN RATHER GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT AND EVEN ALIGN CLOSER THAN AVERAGE ON SOME DETAILS... MAKING A MULTI-MODEL/ENSEMBLE BLEND A WORTHWHILE STARTING POINT. DIFFERENCES ARISE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS TO HOW QUICKLY HEIGHTS RISE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH QUEBEC. THE 18Z GFS/GEFS LAG BEHIND THE 12Z ECMWF/ECENS MEAN. ONE DETERMINING FACTOR WILL BE A ROBUST CLOSED LOW DESCENDING OUT OF THE POLAR REGION THROUGH NUNAVUT... WHERE THE MODELS NOTORIOUSLY HAVE TROUBLE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. WEIGHTED THE ECENS MEAN MORE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO ITS STABILITY IN THE DAY 7 TIME FRAME. ...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS... THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ANOMALIES SHOULD SHOW UP POINTEDLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX WHERE DAYTIME HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO RUN FAR BELOW NORMAL IN THE OVERRUNNING ZONE NORTH OF THE POLAR FRONT--MUCH LIKE THE EVENT ABOUT A WEEK AGO. HEAVY RAIN WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FROM NW TX/OK SOUTHEASTWARD WED-FRI. ALSO LIKE THE EVENT FROM MID MONTH... THE FAR WEST LOOKS SCORCHING HOT WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN LIKELY TO REACH OR EXCEED THE CENTURY MARK IN EASTERN WASHINGTON AND THE ADJACENT LOWLANDS OF IDAHO. ADDITIONALLY... THE MONSOON SHOULD SEND ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD TO FUEL HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PARCHED FAR WEST--A CRITICAL CONCERN FOR WILDLAND FIRES. FRACASSO/CISCO