EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1007 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 VALID 12Z THU JUL 31 2014 - 12Z MON AUG 04 2014 ...OVERVIEW... PERSISTENT RIDGE/TROUGH CONFIGURATION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST SEVERAL DAYS OF AUGUST ACROSS THE CONUS. THE MOST STABLE ANOMALY OVER NORTH AMERICA WILL BE RIDGING OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN WHERE 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL LINGER NEAR +2. IN THE ATLANTIC... RIDGING WILL INITIALLY BUILD BUILD INTO NEWFOUNDLAND BEFORE WEAKENING... ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY RIDGING NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. ANY WAY YOU SLICE IT... TROUGHING WILL STILL BE FAVORED BETWEEN 80-90W. ...GUIDANCE PREFERENCES... MODELS HAVE BEEN ON A STRING OF RATHER CONSISTENT RUNS... ALL THINGS CONSIDERED... AND A BLEND AMONG THE WELL-CLUSTERED 18Z GFS/GEFS MEAN AND 12Z ECMWF/ECENS MEAN AGAIN OFFERED A GREAT STARTING POINT. AT ISSUE WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE SECOND ROUND OF TROUGHING... NEXT SUN/MON... WILL EXIT THE OH VALLEY AND ALSO HOW STRONG INCOMING NORTHERN ENERGY /LIKELY TO STAY IN CANADA/ WILL BE. THE UPPER LOW IN THE ALEUTIANS REFUSES TO BE KICKED EASTWARD... DESPITE VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC RUNS THAT SHOWED IT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS... WHICH WILL MAKE IT HARD FOR ANY SFC BOUNDARY TO GET CLOSE TO THE PAC NW. ...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS... PRECIP SHOULD FOCUS OVER CO/NM AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY HANGS UP EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. OTHER SIDE OF THE FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST BUT WILL BE JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO ALLOW WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO CENTER OVER THE APPALACHIANS. MIDDLE PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH QUITE FAR SOUTH INTO FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO... HELPING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE SUNSHINE STATE AND ALSO INTO THE REST OF THE SOUTHEAST BY THE WEEKEND. FRONT SHOULD CREEP WESTWARD IN TIME THROUGH MON/D7... SPREADING RAIN WESTWARD PAST THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WITH THE TROUGH AXIS STILL WELL WEST... THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WILL RUN THE RISK OF RAIN IN THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE CENTRAL AND HIGH PLAINS SHOULD ENJOY THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH /NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT/ AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10-15F BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN THE COOL/OVERRUNNING ZONE... AND ABOUT 5-10F BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE REST OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN STATES. THE WEST WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM/HOT... WITH THE RELATIVELY HOTTEST TEMPERATURES /5-10F ABOVE AVERAGE/ IN WA/OR/ID. FRACASSO/JAMES