EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 115 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014 VALID 12Z FRI AUG 01 2014 - 12Z TUE AUG 05 2014 ...OVERVIEW... THE BLOCKY AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN SHOULD BE SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING BY NEXT WEEK... BUT WILL STILL MAINTAIN THE LONGWAVE RIDGE/TROUGH ACROSS THE CONUS. UPPER RIDGING SHOULD FLANK THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION BETWEEN 80-90W... THE UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE NW ATLANTIC WHICH SHIFTS INTO THE LOWER LATITUDES NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE BAHAMAS. ...GUIDANCE PREFERENCES... THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD... BUT HAVE SHOWN A BIT MORE VARIETY IN THEIR DETAILS THAN EARLIER RUNS. A BLEND OF THE 18Z GFS/GEFS MEAN AND 12Z ECMWF/ECENS MEAN SUFFICED THROUGH ABOUT SUN/D5 BEFORE THEIR GOOD CLUSTERING FELL APART. AT ISSUE WILL BE HOW TO HANDLE ENERGY MEANDERING NORTHWARD IN THE WEST DURING THE SHORT RANGE THAT SHOULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF IDAHO BY DAY 3 - FRI 1 AUG. THE 12Z ECMWF APPEARS TO BE MUCH TOO STRONG WITH THIS AS IT CONTINUES NORTHWARD THEN EASTWARD... WHICH MAY HELP KICK OUT THE EASTERN TROUGH A BIT QUICKER THAN WHAT THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST. THE 18Z GFS MAY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS VORT MAX... BUT GIVEN ITS SMALL SCALE AND MANY DIFFERENT FORECASTS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS... WILL HAVE TO WAIT SEVERAL MORE MODEL CYCLES TO GAIN MORE CONFIDENCE IN ITS FUTURE COURSE. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK... A BLEND OF THE GEFS AND ECENS MEANS WAS DEEMED THE PATH OF LEAST RESISTANCE. ...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS... PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE FAVORED ALONG THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION... WHERE MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHOULD PEAK MID-PERIOD... ALONG THE GULF COAST AND OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLES VARY ON THEIR PRECIP AXES THROUGH THE WEEKEND... EITHER ALONG AND WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS OR ALONG THE COAST... RESPECTIVELY. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK... MUCH OF THE COUNTRY OUTSIDE OF INTERIOR TEXAS AND THE WEST COAST WILL SEE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SHOULD HAVE THE MOST FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC INGREDIENTS BUT THE INTERIOR WEST WILL ALSO STAY ACTIVE. DEPENDING ON HOW THE ENERGY IN IDAHO ON DAY 3 PROGRESSES... THE NORTHERN PLAINS COULD SEE LITTLE PRECIP /ECMWF/ OR MUCH MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP /GFS/. ENSEMBLES FALL IN BETWEEN. FRACASSO