EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 244 AM EDT FRI AUG 01 2014 VALID 12Z MON AUG 04 2014 - 12Z FRI AUG 08 2014 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE TROPICAL WRN ATLANTIC AND WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 55.5W AT 03 UTC PACKING 40 KT SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 50 KTS. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BERTHA FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE NERN CARIBBEAN/ANTILLES TOWARD THE BAHAMAS AND OFF THE SERN US AS HELD OFFSHORE BY AN ERN US MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PERSISTS DURING BERTHA PASSAGE. A TRAILING WAVY FRONT WILL FOCUS MOISTURE/CONVECTION NEAR THE ERN AND SERN US AND SLOW MOVING SRN STREAM TAILING TROUGH/VORT ENERGY CENTERED BACK NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES REMAIN A FOCUS FOR SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKY FLOW ESTABLISHED FROM THE NERN PACIFIC INTO CANADA AND SRN STREAM FLOW OUT FROM THE WRN US LEADS TO REINFORCING A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH POSITION MID-LATER NEXT WEEK BACK FROM THE N-CENTRAL US/GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST AS THE AMPLIFIED NERN US LEAD TROUGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. CENTRAL US TO GREAT LAKE CYCLOGENSIS SHOULD FOCUS TRAILING PLAINS/MS VALLEY FRONTAL AND WARM SECTOR CONVECTION MID-LATE NEXT WEEK FUELED BY RETURNING GULF MOISTURE. THIS PATTERN ALSO FAVORS LEAD THETAE ADVECTION AND MCS/NOCTURAL CONVECTION ALONG REPEAT CELL HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...SPILLING INTO THE MID-ATLC. MEANWHILE...AMPLE ENERGY ROTATING ON AMPLIFIED RIDGE PERIPHERY THROUGH THE SWRN US/GREAT BASIN AND ROCKY STATES SHOULD FEED ON MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO FOCUS AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY WITH FAVORED TERRAIN/UPSLOPE WHERE SOME MODERATELY HEAVY LOCAL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE WPC MEDIUM RANGE PRODUCT SUITE WAS PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A COMPOSITE BLEND OF GENERALLY COMPATABLE GUIDANCE FROM THE 18 UTC GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 12 UTC ECMWF/UKMET/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. CONSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL TREND TOWARD AMPLIFIED NOAM FLOW FOR EARLY AUGUST...THESE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE MASS FIELDS SEEM REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED WITH RESPECT TO THE ABOVE MENTIONED FEATURES AND SEEM TO OFFER ABOVE NORMAL WEATHER PATTERN AND ORGANIZED SYSTEM PREDICTABILITY. SCHICHTEL