EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 218 AM EDT MON AUG 04 2014 VALID 12Z THU AUG 07 2014 - 12Z MON AUG 11 2014 VALID 12Z WED AUG 06 2014 - 12Z SUN AUG 10 2014 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24.9N 73.2W AT 03 UTC. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER THEN TRACKS BERTHA WELL OFF THE ERN US COAST AS A DEVELOPING CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE AND FURTHER OUT TO SEA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN RESPONCE TO AN AMPLE ERN US MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. OTHERWISE OVER THE LOWER 48...THE WPC MEDIUM RANGE PRODUCT SUITE WAS PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A BLEND OF THE REASONABLY COMPATABLE 18 UTC GFS ENSMEBLE MEAN AND 12 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS ALONG WITH CONTINUITY. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE NOW AGAIN OFFERING TOO MUCH 00 UTC RUN-12 UTC RUN FLIP-FLOPPING AND MODEL-MODEL VARIANCE WITH ESPECIALLY SURFACE BASED SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT/TRACK SUPPRESSION...LENDING BELOW NORMAL PREDICTABILTY. THE CLOSING AND SLOW EJECTION OF ANOTHER COLD VORTEX OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA SHOULD FAVOR HOLDING A COOLING/WAVY POLAR FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UNCERTAIN BUT SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND HEAVY RAINFALL FOCUS UNSEASONALLY FAR UNDERNEATH ACROSS THE US MID SRN/SERN US TIER. UPSTREAM...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND N-CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS SHOULD TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE SOUTHWEST MAY GET A FEW DAYS BREAK FROM THE RATHER SWAMPY MONSOONAL SEASON BEFORE SOME LATER PERIOD RETURN. SCHICHTEL