EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 116 AM EDT WED OCT 08 2014 VALID 12Z SAT OCT 11 2014 - 12Z WED OCT 15 2014 ...OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE PREFERENCES... UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ENTRENCHED IN THE FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK THOUGH THE PREFERENCE REMAINS WITH A SOMEWHAT SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION AMONGST THE MULTI-CENTER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE ECMWF BUT ESPECIALLY ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAVE BEEN SYNOPTICALLY CONSISTENT IN PREDICTING DIGGING TROUGHING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS NEXT WEEK THOUGH THE DETERMINISTIC HRES RUN HAS USUALLY LIED ON THE MORE EXTREME SIDE OF THE SOLUTIONS /CLOSED OFF H5 UPPER LOW... ETC./. THE GFS AND NEARLY ALL OF THE GEFS MEMBERS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A FLATTER/WEAKER TROUGH AND ITS PARALLEL RUN /AVAILABLE IN-HOUSE/ HAS WAFFLED BETWEEN BOTH SOLUTIONS. THE UKMET LIES IN THE CAMP OF THE ECMWF WHILE THE CANADIAN GEM GLOBAL WENT ITS OWN WAY AND CLOSED OFF ENERGY FARTHER NORTH /NOT SUPPORTED/. A PERUSAL OF OUR SIMPLE CLUSTERING ALGORITHM REVEALS SEVERAL CLUSTERS THAT APPEAR TO FALL IN BETWEEN THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE DETERMINISTIC RUN... AND THAT IS GENERALLY THE PREFERENCE... BUT WITH LIMITED CONFIDENCE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS... PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY FOCUS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BEFORE IT STARTS LIFTING NORTHWARD LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD... THERE SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BUT LIGHT TO MODERATE QPF WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW... ENHANCED WITH THE TERRAIN. THERE REMAINS A HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR NEXT WEEK IN THE MID- AND LOWER-MS VALLEY SHOULD THE SHARP/DEEP TROUGH FORM AS FORECAST. THE 12Z ECMWF LIES ON THE WETTEST SIDE OF THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD BUT THE SIGNAL FROM THE ECENS MEAN REMAINS HIGH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM IN THE EAST FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH RIDGING BUILDING DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH. FLORIDA WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN AVERAGE. COOLING TEMPERATURES SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT IN THE WEST BUT WILL BE TEMPERED DUE TO THE MARITIME AIRMASS ORIGINS. NEVERTHELESS... DAYTIME MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE POST-FROPA BEFORE MODERATING AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM. FRACASSO