EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 108 AM EST FRI NOV 07 2014 VALID 12Z MON NOV 10 2014 - 12Z FRI NOV 14 2014 ...BONAFIDE ARCTIC AIR TO SPREAD THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN STATES... ...OVERVIEW... IT'S BEGINNING TO LOOK A LOT LIKE... WINTER... BUT NOT EVERYWHERE YOU GO. THE UPPER PATTERN IS SET TO LOCK INTO A RIDGE/TROUGH ORIENTATION OVER THE CONUS AIDED BY STRONG RIDGING OVER NORTHEASTERN ALASKA AND NORTHWESTERN CANADA /ENHANCED BY BOMBOGENESIS IN THE BERING SEA IN THE SHORT TERM/. THIS WILL BE MANIFESTED AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PLUNGING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MOVING EASTWARD EARLY/MID-WEEK. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ENTRENCHED ALONG THE NORTH AMERICAN WEST COAST. ...GUIDANCE PREFERENCES... THOUGH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOWS BETTER THAN AVERAGE PREDICTABILITY... THE SMALLER SCALE DETAILS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AMONG THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES. MAIN FRONT AND SFC LOW PRESSURE HAVE TRENDED A BIT SLOWER AND DEEPER AS IT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY... BUT CONTINUITY HAS BEEN LACKING. 12Z ECMWF/CANADIAN AND 18Z PARALLEL VERSION OF THE GFS ALIGN WELL... TAKING SFC LOW PRESSURE INTO EASTERN ONTARIO BY WED MORNING... BUT THE ENSEMBLE MEANS LIE TO THEIR EAST. COMPROMISE SOLUTION IN BETWEEN THE TWO CAMPS SHOULD SUFFICE AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE MODEL JUMPINESS. OUT WEST... THE RIDGING SHOULD HOLD ALONG THE COAST BUT THERE IS ROOM FOR ENERGY TO SLIDE INTO OR/WA BENEATH THE STRONGER HEIGHT ANOMALY TO THE NORTH AND NORTH OF THE WEAKER ANOMALY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF CALIFORNIA. DETERMINISTIC MODELS AGAIN FAIL TO IMPRESS... WHICH IS UNDERSTANDABLE GIVEN THE SENSITIVITY TO TIMING OF SMALLER SCALE FEATURES ORIGINATING IN THE NE PACIFIC. ...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS... THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SHOULD LIVE UP TO ITS NAME NEXT WEEK... KEEPING THE COLD AIR TO ITS EAST AND THE MILD/WARM AIR TO ITS WEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE A GOOD 10-25F BELOW CLIMO VALUES IN THE CENTRAL STATES... CENTERED FROM MONTANA SOUTHWARD TO TEXAS AND 10-20F BELOW CLIMO IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST EXCEPT FLORIDA WHICH SHOULD ESCAPE THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIRMASS. RECORD LOW MINIMA AND/OR LOW MAXIMA MAY BE APPROACHED IN SOME LOCATIONS THANKS TO STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUT RECORDS GET PRETTY COLD REAL QUICK IN NOVEMBER. PRECIPITATION SHOULD FOCUS AROUND THE LEAD/MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SFC WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST OR SOUTHERN CANADA. PRECIPITATION... MUCH OF IT SNOW... SHOULD FALL TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK FROM MN/IA INTO MI. AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY IT SHOULD GARNISH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WRING OUT SOME SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND TOWARD THE EAST COAST. ONCE THE SYSTEM CLEARS THE COAST AND MUCH OF FLORIDA... IT SHOULD LINGER OFFSHORE AS IT ENCOUNTERS RIDGING TO ITS EAST IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE WEST SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME PRECIPITATION SNEAKING INTO WA/OR AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THOUGH A DISCREET FRONTAL PASSAGE IS NOT TOO LIKELY. FRACASSO