EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 211 AM EST FRI FEB 06 2015 VALID 12Z MON FEB 09 2015 - 12Z FRI FEB 13 2015 ...GUIDANCE/UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT AND PATTERN/SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS... WPC MEDIUM-RANGE PRODUCTS WERE MAINLY DERIVED FROM A BLEND OF COMPATABLE GUIDANCE FROM THE 12 UTC ECMWF AND ECMWF/NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS. THIS COMBO MAINTAINS GOOD WPC CONTINUITY IN A PATTERN WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN AVERAGE PREDICTABILITY. ONE AREA OF HIGHER FORECAST SPREAD DOES REMAIN WITH THE TRACK OF A POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW AND WINTERY PCPN PROXIMITY ALONG/OFF THE EAST COAST MON-WED. RECENT GFS AND GEFS/NAEFS MEANS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF/UKMET AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN THAT FAVOR MORE AMPLITUDE WITH THE SUPPORTING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT MAY SEEM MORE CONSISTENT WITH AMPLIFYING FLOW FURTHER UPSTREAM. THE RELATIVELY SHORT WAVELENGTH SPACING BETWEEN UPSTREAM SYSTEMS THOUGH DOES GIVE SOME PAUSE...LENDING ONE PART INCLUSION OF THE NAEFS WITH TWO PARTS OF THE MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IN THE WPC BLEND. MEANWHILE UPSTREAM...THE WRN US IS ACTIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW/SYSTEM PUNCHES INLAND THEN DIGS...LEADING TO A FOUR CORNERS TO NWRN MEXICO CLOSED LOW NEXT WED-FRI. THIS UNSETTLING AND PCPN SPREADING FEATURE SEEMS FAIRLY WELL DEPICTED IN GUIDANCE AND USHERS IN A MORE BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN IN ITS WAKE AS MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERTOP OVER THE NW US/WRN CANADA. THIS RIDGE ALLOWS CANADIAN IMPULSES TO THE LEE DIG MORE ROBUSTLY INTO MID-LATITUDES OVER TIME TO CARVE OUT AN AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL COLD TROUGH AND LOWER ATMOSPHERIC COLD SURGE CONDUIT ALONG WITH SOME MODEST WINTERY PCPN SWATH POTENTIAL FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO ERN US WED-NEXT FRI. SCHICHTEL