EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1039 AM EST FRI FEB 06 2015 VALID 12Z MON FEB 09 2015 - 12Z FRI FEB 13 2015 ...OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE/UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT... A BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED BETWEEN HAWAI'I AND THE ALEUTIANS WILL FAVOR DOWNSTREAM RIDGING TO REBUILD INTO THE WESTERN STATES NEXT WEEK. CONCURRENTLY... A RESURGENCE OF RIDGING TOWARD SE GREENLAND AND ICELAND WILL FAVOR UPSTREAM TROUGHING TO CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND A MODEL/ENSEMBLE BLEND WAS USED THAT MAINTAINED GOOD CONTINUITY. THE 06Z GFS/GEFS AND 00Z ECMWF/ECENS MEAN FORMED A GOOD CONSENSUS WITH SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z UKMET AND CANADIAN. BY NEXT FRIDAY... THE CANADIAN MEAN -- AND LESSER SO THE GEFS MEAN -- SEEMED TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH LESS RIDGING ALONG THE WESTERN NOAM COAST COMPARED TO THE ECENS/GEFS MEANS LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO ITS HANDLING OF UPSTREAM ENERGY NEAR THE ALEUTIANS. ...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS... TWO SYSTEMS ON EACH COAST WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD TO START THE PERIOD ON MONDAY WITH WINTRY WEATHER IN THE NORTHEAST AND RAIN/SNOW FOR THE PACIFIC/INTERIOR NW. ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW A COMPLICATED EVOLUTION OFF THE EAST COAST BUT THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FOCUS OFFSHORE BUT EASTERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE FORECAST. IN THE WEST... APPROACHING SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH THE PAC NW MON-TUE WILL DIG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DESERT SW AS RIDGING -- LIKELY TO CLOSE OFF -- HEADS TOWARD OR/ID. UPPER LOW SHOULD BE LEFT BEHIND OVER NW MEXICO WHICH SHOULD HELP USHER IN PRECIPITATION OVER TIME INTO NM AND W TX. THIS RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW CANADIAN IMPULSES TO DIG MORE ROBUSTLY INTO MID-LATITUDES OVER TIME TO CARVE OUT AN AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL COLD TROUGH AND LOWER ATMOSPHERIC COLD SURGE CONDUIT ALONG WITH A MODEST SWATH OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO EASTERN US NEXT WED-FRI. TEMPERATURES WITH THIS NEXT CANADIAN COLD SNAP COULD BE 20F-30F BELOW AVERAGE IN THE NORTHEAST AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO AT LEAST APPROACH SOME RECORD LOWS. RIDGING IN THE WEST SUPPORTS 10-20F ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FRACASSO/SCHICHTEL