EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 200 AM EST MON MAR 02 2015 VALID 12Z THU MAR 05 2015 - 12Z MON MAR 09 2015 ...GUIDANCE ASSESSMENT AND PATTERN/SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS... THE WPC MEDIUM-RANGE PRODUCT SUITE WAS PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A COMPOSITE MODEL BLEND OF THE 18 UTC GFS AND 12 UTC ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN INTO THU/FRI BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A COMPOSITE BLEND THE 18 UTC GEFS MEAN AND 12 UTC ECMWF/NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS OUT TO DAY 7/NEXT MON IN A PERIOD WITH MARGINALLY INCREASED FORECAST SPREAD. THIS PATTERN SEEMS TO OFFER AVERAGE OR BETTER PREDICTABILITY. THE LAST IN A RECENT SERIES OF STORMY WINTER WEATHER FEATURES IS QUICKLY TRANSFERING INTO SHORT RANGE TIME SCALES AND WPC PRODUCTS...BUT LINGERING FRONTAL WAVE FOCUS SHOULD PROLONG AMPLE WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL CENTERING OVER THE COOLING MID-ATLANTIC INTO THU ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A POST-FRONTAL ARCTIC SURGE SPREAD FAR SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FROSTY NATION. A TRANSITION TO AN ENSEMBLE FORECAST APPROACH SHOULD WORK WELL LATER ON AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE BENIGN/DRY FOR MUCH OF THE NATION. HOWEVER...THE 12 UTC ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLES DO REBOUND MOISTURE AND PCPN MORE ROBUSTLY INLAND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES/SERN US THAN THE REST OF GUIDANCE INTO DAY 7 NEXT MON. A COMPOSITE BLEND ALLOWS POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE REBOUND CONSISTENT WITH A LARGER SCALE FLOW PATTERN WITH SOME ROOM FOR AMPLIFICATION ALOFT AND SURFACE RESPONSE. SCHICHTEL