EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1116 AM EDT FRI MAY 01 2015 VALID 12Z MON MAY 04 2015 - 12Z FRI MAY 08 2015 THE BIGGEST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD ARE HOW MUCH ENERGY DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND, TO A LESSER EXTENT, HOW DEVELOPED THE SUBTROPICAL HYBRID LOW BECOMES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE 00Z/01 GFS AND ECMWF REPRESENTED THE EXTREMES OF POSSIBILITY WITH THE WESTERN TROUGH, WITH THE GFS SENDING JUST ABOUT ALL THE INCOMING PACIFIC ENERGY INTO A NEW VORTEX OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THE 00Z/01 ECMWF SENT MOST OF THE ENERGY EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE 12Z/30 ECMWF AFFORDED A MIDDLE GROUND, SO UTILIZED IT AND A BLEND OF THE 00Z/01 NAEFS AND ECENS MEANS AS A VERY HEDGED MANUAL BLEND THIS FORECAST. THE OTHER BENEFIT OF THE INCORPORATION OF THE OLDER ECMWF IS TO ADD DEFINITION TO THE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELDS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER IN THE PERIOD. EVERY MAJOR 00Z/01 OPERATIONAL MODEL SHOWED AT LEAST SOME MODEST DEVELOPMENT WITH THE CIRCULATION EMERGING FROM THE BAHAMAS. THE SAFEST BETS FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THIS PERIOD ARE THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE CENTRAL STATES. WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, MUCH AND MORE OWES TO WHERE THE BULK OF THE JET MEANDERS. PARTS OF TEXAS LOOK ESPECIALLY RAINY, WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE DAYS 4 AND 5 ALONE. CISCO