EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 232 AM EDT FRI MAY 08 2015 VALID 12Z MON MAY 11 2015 - 12Z FRI MAY 15 2015 ...SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA FORMS OFF THE CAROLINAS... THE NHC NOW INDICATES THAT SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA HAS ORGANIZED AND WAS LOCATED OFF THE CAROLINAS NEAR 31.5N 77.6W AT 03 UTC WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KTS AND GUSTS OF 50 KTS. ANA IS EXPECTED TO LANDFALL INTO THE CAROLINAS POSSIBLY AS A TROPICAL STORM AROUND LATER SUN INTO MON. A SUBSEQUENT WEAKENING SYSTEM TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE TO POOL DEEP MOISTURE TO FUEL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL FROM THE CAROLINAS NEWD THROUGH COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENG TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY WED WHILE QUICKLY LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. PLEASE REFER TO LATEST WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FROM THE NHC AND YOUR LOCAL NWS FORECAST OFFICE. UPSTREAM ON THE HEELS OF ANA...AN AMPLIFIED/COOLING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ORGANIZED SURFACE LOW/PCPN GETS KICKED FROM THE N-CENTRAL US MON NEWD THROUGH THE NERN US MIDWEEK ALONG WITH AN ORGANIZED AND LOCALLY EXCESSIVE PCPN FOCUSING TRAILING FRONT DOWN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL US AND THROUGH SRN/SERN US BEFORE STALLING/LINGERING INTO DAYS 6/7 NEXT THU/FRI. AN UPSTREAM AND ALSO AMPLIFIED/COOLING KICKER MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND REACHES THE US WEST COAST BY MON BEFORE WORKING INLAND ACROSS THE WRN US INTO MIDWEEK THEN SHEARING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN US. THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SPREAD HEIGHT FALLS AND SWATH/PERIODS OF MODEST MOISTURE/PCPN AND SOME ELEVATION ENHANCING SNOWS THAT MAINLY FOCUS OVER THE NW US...N-CENTRAL GREAT BASIN...THEN ROCKIES INTO MIDWEEK. FURTHER UPSTREAM...ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH ALOFT AND LEAD SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS ALSO SLATED TO DIG INTO THE WEST COAST LATER NEEK WEEK...CONTINUING THE ACTIVE FLOW PATTERN. ...GUIDANCE AND UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT... THE 18 UTC GFS/GEFS MEAN AND 12 UTC ECMWF AND NAEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS NOW SEEM TO HAVE CONVERGED UPON A REASONABLY COMPATABLE SOLUTION WITH THE MAJOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FEATURES...INCLUDING BEING IN LINE WITH NHC'S NEWLY FORMED ANA. OVERALL PREFER A COMPOSITE SOLUTION TO SMOOTH THE ROUGH EDGES OVER NOAM...BUT APPLIED MANUAL MODIFICATIONS TO ENHANCE MAJOR ORGANIZED SYSTEMS WEATHER FOCUS GIVEN LATEST REDUCED FORECAST SPREAD TRENDS. SCHICHTEL