EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1152 AM EDT FRI JUN 05 2015 VALID 12Z MON JUN 08 2015 - 12Z FRI JUN 12 2015 THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ACROSS THE UNITED STATES AT THE MEDIUM RANGE OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS, THOUGH THERE ARE STILL A COUPLE LINGERING DIFFERENCES. THE GFS AND GEFS CONTINUE TO TRACK THE REMNANTS OF BLANCA TO THE EAST OF THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS, WITH A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING UP THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL INTO THE BORDERLANDS OF ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO. ASSUMING THE MODELS ARE CORRECT, EVEN THE ECMWF AND GDPS--WHICH ARE SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER AND TO THE WEST OF THE GFS--SHOW A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A LOBE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO SURGE INTO THE SOUTHWEST DAY 4. THE OTHER REMAINING DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF/GDPS CAMPS IS IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. THE GFS/GEFS DO NOT MAKE AS MUCH INROADS SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH THE DAY 6 AND 7 POLAR PUSH. THE ECENS MEAN HAS BEEN THE STEADIEST WITH BOTH OF THE DIFFERENCES, SO USED IT AS A SYNOPTIC BASE THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. DID REFLECT A MODEST UPTICK IN POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST ALLOWING FOR SOME MOISTURE TO MAKE IT ACROSS THE BORDER, WITH A COMMENSURATE QPF PLANNED FOR THE FORTHCOMING MANUAL CHARTS. CISCO