EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 115 AM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015 VALID 12Z FRI AUG 21 2015 - 12Z TUE AUG 25 2015 ...OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE PREFERENCES... MODELS AND ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO RETURN... THOUGH IN MODEST FORM... TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AS PROGRESSIVE TROUGHING MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER. A CONSENSUS BLEND APPROACH WAS USED THROUGH THE FORECAST... WITH INCREASED WEIGHTING OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS BY NEXT TUE/D7. ECMWF AGAIN LIED ON THE STRONGER SIDE OF THE SPREAD... BUT RECENT VERIFICATION HAS TENDED TO FAVOR DEEPER RATHER THAN WEAKER SYSTEMS. ...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS... PRECIP FOCUS WILL BE FIRST IN THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC WITH THE EXITING FRONT ON FRI/D3. GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE STILL SPLIT SW/NE... RESPECTIVELY... FOR THE HEAVIEST QPF /BASICALLY THE DELMARVA INTO S NJ VS. NEW ENGLAND/. THEREAFTER... DEVELOPING SYSTEM IN THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE THE BIGGER FOCUS FOR QPF FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SAT-MON. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR/ABOVE CLIMO IN A U SHAPE FROM THE WEST TO SOUTH TO EAST WHILE THE CENTRAL STATES SHOULD BE NEAR/BELOW CLIMO IN A MORE CLOUDY/RAINY REGIME. FRACASSO