EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1112 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 VALID 12Z WED DEC 02 2015 - 12Z SUN DEC 06 2015 ...OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREFERENCES... MID-LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE DRIVEN BY UPPER LOWS CIRCULATING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC, A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY IN CENTRAL CANADA, AND UPPER LOWS NEAR THE DAVIS STRAIT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH NO ARCTIC AIR INTRUSIONS SEEN. A PACIFIC-ORIGIN/SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER PLAYER THU-SUN. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY MODEST DETAIL DIFFERENCES. A BLEND OF THE RECENT GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SERVES WELL AS A FORECAST STARTING POINT. TRENDED TO A MAJORITY ENSEMBLE WEIGHTING (GEFS/ECENS) BY NEXT SUN WHEN THE CONSENSUS WEAKENS. ...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS... RAIN AND SOME INTERIOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIT MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY SINKS THROUGH FLORIDA WHERE MORE APPRECIABLE RAIN IS POSSIBLE. WESTERN STATES WILL SEE AT LEAST A COUPLE DEFINED SYSTEMS PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WITH A GOOD MOISTURE CONNECTION BACK TO THE SUBTROPICS. FOCUS WILL BE BROADLY ALONG THE NORCAL/OR/WA COAST WED-FRI WITH THE LEAST SYSTEM BUT THEN LIKELY FOCUS FARTHER NORTH, PERHAPS INTO BC, WITH THE SYSTEM NEXT WEEKEND. FIRST SYSTEM WILL SPLIT OFF THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN/SNOW FOR NV/UT/CO AND INTO NM AS THE SURFACE LOW EXITS ONTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE -- BY ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES -- ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER BUT NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS OUTSIDE FLORIDA AND COASTAL CALIFORNIA. FRACASSO