EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 121 AM EST SAT JAN 02 2016 VALID 12Z TUE JAN 05 2016 - 12Z SAT JAN 09 2016 ...OVERVIEW... SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL BE MODULATED BY PERSISTENT TROUGHING NEAR BANKS ISLAND IN FAR NW CANADA (AROUND 72N/122W). WITH THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE TEMPORARILY SQUASHED INTO THE CARIBBEAN, THIS LEAVES THE STORM TRACK OUT OF THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND ALONG 30N INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN STATES. ...GUIDANCE EVALUATION/WPC PREFERENCES... ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN MOSTLY SETTLED ON THE EVOLVING PATTERN, DESPITE SOME LOUDER THAN AVERAGE DETAIL DIFFERENCES THAT ULTIMATELY WILL MAKE THE 'WEATHER' ACROSS THE CONUS. GIVEN THE REASONABLE PROGRESSION SPELLED OUT BY THE RECENT GEFS/ECENS MEANS, OPTED TO USE THEIR AGREEMENT AS A BASE FOR THE FORECAST. THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF OFFERED A GOOD ENOUGH CORRELATION THAT A BLEND OF THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WAS USED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS... RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE WED-THU. ACTUAL ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS NEAR FREEZING ON TUESDAY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE LAST WINTER. TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR/BELOW AVERAGE WHILE THE NORTHERN TIER SHOULD STAY ABOVE AVERAGE. PRECIPITATION WILL FOCUS IN CALIFORNIA WITH SUCCESSIVE SYSTEMS, THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/NW GULF COAST. BY LATER IN THE WEEK, ANOTHER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO CALIFORNIA AND THE SW WHILE THE EASTERN SYSTEM COAGULATES OFFSHORE IN A MILLER-B FASHION. SNOW SHOULD BE LIMITED TO WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS IN THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND STATES GIVEN THE EXPECTED STORM TRACK AND GENERAL LACK OF COLD ENOUGH AIR BY NEXT FRI/SAT. FRACASSO