EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1020 AM EST MON FEB 01 2016 VALID 12Z THU FEB 04 2016 - 12Z MON FEB 08 2016 HIGHLIGHTS... MODELS PROJECT A RETROGRADING UPPER TROUGH FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE PLAINS NEXT THU-MON...WITH A COMPENSATING UPPER RIDGE EVENTUALLY FORMING ALONG THE WEST COAST. OTHER THAN ONE LAST SURGE OF POSSIBLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK...THIS PATTERN GENERALLY FAVORS DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS. MODEL PREFERENCES AND CONFIDENCE... FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE UPSTREAM POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH FAVOR A LOW TRACK ALONG THE EAST COAST THAT IS GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE AND BETWEEN THE CONSENSUS AND WEAK SIDE OF THE SOLUTION ENVELOPE...WITH THE 06Z GEFS MEAN AND 00Z CANADIAN MOST REFLECTIVE OF THESE SOLUTIONS AND MORE PREFERRED OVER THE SLOWER AND DEEPER 00Z ECMWF. CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE GIVEN THE SPLIT FLOW AND SPREAD OF THE ENSEMBLES. FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WELL AS THE DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO TEXAS...A SOLUTION BETWEEN THE 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z GFS IS MOST PREFERRED...WITH THE 00Z GFS CONSIDERED TOO QUICK AND TOO DISTANT FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS IN ALL AREAS TO BE USED WITH MUCH RELIABILITY. CONFIDENCE IS AGAIN ABOUT AVERAGE DUE TO AVERAGE SPREAD. FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NEW TROUGH FORMS OVER THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...CONSISTENCY WITH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF...SLOWING TRENDS OF THE GFS...AND HIGH AMPLITUDE OF THE LONGWAVE RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST...FAVOR A SOLUTION SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE ENSEMBLE MEANS...WITH THE 00Z GFS CONSIDERED TOO FAR EAST WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH CROSSING WISCONSIN. CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE FOR THIS SYSTEM DUE TO ITS SIZE AND THUS GREATER PREDICTABILITY...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN USUAL FOR A DAY 7 SYSTEM. PRIMARY IMPACTS... ANOTHER SURGE OF POSSIBLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MORE SO THE COASTAL RANGES AND CASCADES OF WASHINGTON THAN OREGON. AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ALONG THE WEST COAST THAT COULD LAST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. A SWATH OF RAIN/SNOW/WIND MAY ALSO IMPACT AREAS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A SIGNIFICANT CYCLONE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE REFORMING UPPER TROUGH. JAMES