EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 114 AM EST MON FEB 08 2016 VALID 12Z THU FEB 11 2016 - 12Z MON FEB 15 2016 ...RECORD COLD POSSIBLE IN THE EAST THIS WEEKEND... THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BY NEXT MONDAY, BUT NOT WITHOUT SOME EXTREME TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CONUS. RECORD HIGHS ACROSS THE WEST COAST WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD THROUGH ABOUT FRIDAY BEFORE UPPER TROUGHING PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, KNOCKING DOWN TEMPERATURES. THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE RECENTLY STRUGGLED WITH HOW THIS TROUGH SPLITS IN THE EAST PACIFIC. RECENT GFS RUNS HAVE DEPARTED FROM CONTINUITY AND THE ECMWF/ECENS CONSENSUS IN THE WEST ENOUGH TO LIMIT ITS INCLUSION IN THE BLEND, THOUGH ITS SOLUTION(S) STILL LIE WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD. EITHER WAY, HEIGHTS WILL LOWER IN THE WEST LATER THIS WEEK AS A PACIFIC FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD, SPREADING PRECIP THROUGH WA/OR AND INTO IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA. BY NEXT SUNDAY/MONDAY, ASSUMING THIS SHORTWAVE REACHES THE CENTRAL PLAINS INSTEAD OF BEING DELAYED BY A DAY OR TWO, GULF MOISTURE SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND HELP WRING OUT SOME SHOWERS. IN THE EAST, THE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE LATER THIS WEEK WILL HELP DRAW IN ANOTHER COLD UPPER LOW THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRI-SUN. THIS WILL BRING IN VERY COLD AIR FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST/NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC AND WILL MAINTAIN LAKE-EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOWS. GFS HAS TRENDED COLDER TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION FROM 24-36 HRS AGO, WHICH WAS ALONG WPC CONTINUITY. RECORD COLD MINS ARE MOST LIKELY IN AREAS OF RECENT SNOWFALL. SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES ABOVE ZERO ARE LIKELY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY MORNING WHILE SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO ARE LIKELY FOR MOST OF NEW ENGLAND, NY, AND NW NJ WHICH IS ABOUT 20-25 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID-FEBRUARY. FRACASSO