EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1102 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016 VALID 12Z SUN FEB 14 2016 - 12Z THU FEB 18 2016 ...WINTER STORM NEXT TUE-WED FOR THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE EAST COAST... ...OVERVIEW... MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN CONTINENT WHILE A LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVING AT THE WEST COAST BY DAY 7/THU NEXT WEEK. THE MOST NOTABLY FEATURE THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD IS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST FROM DAY 5/TUE TO DAY 6/WED. THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A MORE INLAND TRACK RATHER THAN A COASTAL TRACK. ...MODEL PREFERENCES/UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT... FOR THE EAST COAST CYCLONE...THE 00Z ECMWF IS NOTED TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN OTHER MODEL PACKAGES AND HAS BEEN ELIMINATED FROM THE BLEND BEYOND DAY 4. THE EC MEAN CONTINUES TO YIELD THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION THROUGH DAY 7 AND THUS HAS BEEN GIVEN A SIGNIFICANT WEIGHT THROUGHOUT...ESPECIALLY BY DAY 7. THE 06Z GFS IS NOTED TO AGREE WELL WITH THE EC MEAN REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE EAST COAST STORM AND THUS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE DAY 5 AND 6 BLEND. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE EPAC ON DAY 6/WED IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND BY DAY 7/THU. ...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS... RECORD COLD IN THE EAST WILL EASE ON MONDAY BUT TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE BELOW AVERAGE. THE WEST WILL SEE A CONTINUED STRETCH OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL SPREAD EASTWARD MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE STUMBLES EASTWARD. SHARP E-W TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ON TUESDAY AND A COASTAL FRONT PUSHES WESTWARD AND NORTHWARD. THAT WILL TRANSLATE NORTHWARD AS THE LOW PUSHES INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY. MAINE SHOULD SEE QUITE THE TEMPERATURE RISE FROM SUNDAY IN THE -10S TO WEDNESDAY IN THE 40S... DEPENDING ON THE STORM TRACK. PRECIPITATION WILL FOCUS INITIALLY IN THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND COASTAL RANGE NEAR THE STORM TRACK BUT THEN SINK SOUTHWARD INTO CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY. SIGNAL SEEMS GOOD FOR PRECIP TO EVENTUALLY MAKE IT TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THU/FRI. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL WRING OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTHERN TIER EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE THE SOUTHEAST SYSTEM EXPANDS ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD. ICING THREAT REMAINS A STRONG POSSIBILITY IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE COLD AIR IS RELUCTANT TO BE SCOURED OUT AS WARM ADVECTION PRECIP IS PULLED IN FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST. SNOW IS FORECAST TO THE NORTH, DEEPER INTO THE COLD AIR, BUT A CHANGEOVER IS LIKELY FOR MANY AREAS AS THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE WELL EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TOO SOON TO STATE HOW FAR WEST THAT MAY BE. PLEASE CONSULT THE WPC EXPERIMENTAL DAY 4-7 WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK GRAPHICS -- LINKED FROM OUR HOME PAGE -- WHICH ARE PROBABILISTIC IN NATURE. KONG/FRACASSO