EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1200 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016 VALID 12Z FRI MAR 18 2016 - 12Z TUE MAR 22 2016 ...SNOW FOR THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK... ...OVERVIEW... UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE IN A STATE OF FLUX THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD AS THE RIDGE INITIALLY ALONG THE WEST COAST PUSHES EASTWARD AND FLATTENS. DETAILS IN THE EAST CONTINUE TO EVOLVE WITH EACH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE RUN, BUT THE MAJORITY/CONSENSUS STILL SUPPORT A DEEPENING SYSTEM MOVING UP THE COAST SUN-MON (SUNDAY IS THE EQUINOX). ...MODEL PREFERENCES/UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT... DID NOT HAVE A LOT OF FREE TIME TO ADD MUCH TO THE WRITE UP --- BUT THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION --- AND FORECASTS SEEMED TO HANDLE THINGS RATHER WELL. THE BLEND TODAY DID NOT APPRECIABLY ALTER THE CHARACTER OF THE NATIONAL PREVIOUS FORECASTS. ACROSS THE EAST --- THE 15/00Z DETERMINISTIC ECMWF/GFS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS WERE UTILIZED THROUGH DAY 5 (SUNDAY) --- TO TRACK THE MIGRATION OF THE INTENSIFYING COASTAL SYSTEM FROM THE OUTER BANKS TO NOVA SCOTIA --- WITH RAPID INTENSIFICATION EAST OF THE BENCHMARK ON/AROUND THE 21/06Z TIME FRAME. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A WELL-DEFINED DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION SHIELD AND SNOWFALL POTENTIAL FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NEW ENGLAND HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING. ALONG THE WEST COAST --- THE ONE ADJUSTMENT I MADE --- AND FOLLOWED THE 15/00Z FORECAST GUIDANCE --- WAS TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND PROGRESSIVE WITH THE INLAND MIGRATION OF EAST PACIFIC SYSTEMS. THIS IN TURN ... WILL ALLOW THE PACIFIC AIRMASS INFLUENCE TO MOVE EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS A TAD QUICKER THAN CONTINUITY (MAINLY DAYS 6-7). VOJTESAK ...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS... IN THE WEST, RIDGING WILL PROMOTE GENERALLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR WA/OR/CA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. LEAD FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE AS IT STRETCHES NW-SE SAT-SUN AND BRING IN SOME LIGHT PRECIP. TRAILING ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPSTREAM UPPER LOW SHOULD BRING IN A MORE SIGNIFICANT BUT STILL MODEST COLD FRONT MONDAY. PRECIP LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OR/WA. SYSTEM ORGANIZING IN THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND WILL SPREAD A GOOD DEAL OF RAIN AND NORTHERN FRINGE SNOW TO THE REST OF THE EAST/NORTHEAST SUN-TUE PER THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINAL AND THE INTERIOR AREAS STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW. PLEASE CONSULT THE EXPERIMENTAL DAY 4-7 WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK GRAPHICS WHICH SHOW THE DAILY PROBABILITIES OF WINTRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER TO BELOW AVERAGE VALUES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IN THE PLAINS FRI/SAT AND THEN POINTS EASTWARD SUN/MON. WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW AFTER THAT, FIRST IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND THEN INTO THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRACASSO