EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1150 AM EDT FRI APR 01 2016 VALID 12Z MON APR 04 2016 - 12Z FRI APR 08 2016 ...RECORD WARMTH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEST NEXT WEEK... ...RECORD COLD LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST ALONG WITH SNOW... ...OVERVIEW... THE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS THE WEST/EAST WILL REASSERT ITSELF BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ENSURE A RATHER WINTRY FEEL TO THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST BUT A MILD/WARM FEEL FOR THE WEST. ...MODEL PREFERENCES/EVALUATION... THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE REALLY COME TOGETHER FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE FORECAST -- MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY -- IN BETTER THAN AVERAGE AGREEMENT. BY FRIDAY THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES REMAIN A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE GEFS MEMBERS IN THE WEST BUT ESPECIALLY THE EAST AS THE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THE STRONG RIDGING (+2 TO +3 STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES FOR 500MB HEIGHTS) YET AGAIN FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, WPC PREFERS THE MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED, THIS IS STILL VERY GOOD AGREEMENT OUT TO DAY 7. IN THE WEST... THIS WILL TAKE A SYSTEM INTO THE WEST AS THE RIDGE RELAXES JUST ENOUGH TO LET THE NORTHERN PORTION OF AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE TO PUSH EASTWARD. SOUTHERN PORTION WILL DIP INTO THE SUBTROPICS AND CLOSE OFF WELL WEST OF CALIFORNIA. AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST NEXT WED-FRI, ANOTHER UPSTREAM SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL LIKELY ACT AS THE IMPETUS TO MOVE THE LEAD DOWNSTREAM CLOSED LOW TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. PREFER TO LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER 06Z GEFS/GFS AND 00Z ECMWF/ECENS MEAN OVER THE QUICKER 00Z GEFS AS THE TREND HAS BEEN SLOWER TO BRING THIS INTO THE SW DUE TO STRONGER RIDGING THROUGH THE INTERIOR WEST. HOWEVER, IT SEEMS THAT THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS CLOSE ENOUGH SO THAT THEY ARE NOT THAT FAR APART GIVEN THE LEAD TIME. LAST SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE REGION WILL BE BY NEXT FRIDAY AS A PACIFIC SYSTEM HEADS INTO FAR NW CANADA BUT WILL LIKELY BE BLOCKED FROM OR AT LEAST DELAYED FROM ENTERING THE PAC NW. IN THE EAST... MEAN TROUGH AXIS WILL REFORM IN THE EAST AS A COUPLE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST MONDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY. MODELS/ENSEMBLES SHOW BETTER THAN AVERAGE AGREEMENT OUT TO ABOUT WEDNESDAY WITH BOTH THE LEAD SYSTEM AND TRAILING ONE THAT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WED-THU. CONSENSUS AMONG THE 06Z GFS/GEFS AND 00Z ECMWF/ECENS SERVED AS A GOOD STARTING POINT. BY LATE THU INTO FRI, PREFER TO WEIGHT THE FORECAST TOWARD THE SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF/ECENS MEAN WHICH HAVE BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT IN RECENT RUNS. ...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS... IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE WINTER THAN SPRING IN THE NORTHEAST FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. MON/TUE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW ALONG THE I-90/88/86 CORRIDOR FROM NY INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY MAY FALL TO RECORD LOW LEVELS (ESPECIALLY WITH FRESH SNOW COVER) INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS (ABOUT 10-25 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE) THROUGH INTERIOR NY/PA AND NEW ENGLAND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM MICHIGAN TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC. DAYTIME HIGHS MAY NOT OFFER MUCH RELIEF -- ONLY CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 30S AND LOW 40S WHICH IS ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. DIGGING TROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER DIP IN TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN RAIN/SNOW FOR THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC WITH A GOOD MOISTURE FETCH FROM THE ATLANTIC. AFTER AN INITIAL BOUT OF PRECIPITATION MON-TUE IN THE NORTHWEST AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER, THE WESTERN STATES WILL TREND INCREASINGLY WARMER AS RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. APPROACHING UPPER LOW FROM THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC WILL PUT AN END TO MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHWEST THU INTO FRI. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES STILL DIVERGE ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION TO BRING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES WETTER THAN THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES. STILL LEANING ON THE DRIER SIDE OF THE SOLUTIONS FOR NOW BUT EXPECT AT LEAST SOME RAIN TO WORK NORTHEASTWARD FRIDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY. FRACASSO