EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 255 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 VALID 12Z WED JUN 01 2016 - 12Z SUN JUN 05 2016 ...GUIDANCE/UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT AND PATTERN HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS... TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR 31N 79.5W AT 03 UTC AND PACKED 40KT SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. BONNIE IS FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW ALONG THE NC COAST INTO MIDWEEK AND ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED WEATHER FURTHER WEAKEN OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND LATER WEEK. PLEASE REFER TO LATEST PRODUCTS FROM THE NHC AND EFFECTED NWS FORECAST OFFICES FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON BONNIE. OTHERWISE...THE GRADUAL BUILDING ALOFT OF AN UNSETTLED AMPLIFIED NERN PACIFIC TROUGH AND SHIELDING W-CENTRAL NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE OVER THE NEXT WEEK SHOULD ALLOW A SERIES OF IMPULSES ALSO CARVE/MAINTAIN AN EAST-CENTRAL NORTH AMERICAN MEAN TROUGH ALOFT AND QUITE WAVY SURFACE FRONT. SEPARATION DETAILS WITHIN THIS TROUGH REMAIN MORE UNCERTAIN...BUT AMPLITUDE AND SLOW TRANSLATION FAVOR PERIODS OF DEEP GULF OF MEXICO THEN ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO FUEL SOME WIDESPREAD HEAVY MEDIUM RANGE DOWNPOURS OVER THE S-CENTRAL THROUGH E-CENTRAL TO ERN US. THE WPC MEDIUM RANGE PRODUCT SUITE WAS PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A COMPOSITE BLEND OF REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED GUIDANCE FROM THE 18 UTC GFS/GEFS AND 12 UTC ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS SOLUTION OFFERS NEAR AVERAGE FORECAST PREDICTABILITY. SCHICHTEL