EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1104 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 VALID 12Z THU JUN 02 2016 - 12Z MON JUN 06 2016 ...GUIDANCE/UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT AND PATTERN HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS... A TRANSITION BACK TO A TROUGH EAST/RIDGE WEST PATTERN HIGHLIGHTS THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE REMNANTS FROM TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WILL MAKE ITS WAY SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST OFFSHORE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM NHC AND AFFECTED NWS FORECAST OFFICES FOR ADDITIONAL INFO ON BONNIE. A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY FROM THE EASTERN MIDWEST THROUGH THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL MAKE ITS WAY VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS DURING THE PERIOD. FARTHER WEST...A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND A WESTERLY JET OVER THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY AS A THE RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD AND ONE OR MORE SHORTWAVES MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE THE ENSEMBLE SUITE ARE PRETTY UNIFORM IN DEPICTING THIS TRANSITION...THERE ARE DISTINCT DIFFERENCES IN DIFFERENT MODEL SIMULATIONS WITH THE ECMWF/00Z CANADIAN/UKMET REPRESENTING THE LOW AMPLITUDE SOLUTIONS WHILE THE GFS/GEFS/NAEFS REPRESENTED A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN. AN INTERMEDIATE SOLUTION WAS USED DUE TO THE SPLIT IN SOLUTIONS. THERE IS ALSO A SEPARATE TROUGH THAT APPROACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON THE WEEKEND WITH THE EUROPEAN/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS BEING SOMEWHAT SOUTH OF THE GFS/GEFS SOLUTIONS. ASSESSING UNCERTAINTY...THE TEXAS TROUGH APPEARS TO BE A HIGHLY PROBABLE FEATURE WITH THE EMPHASIS FOR POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS. THE INTERACTION WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING TOWARD TEXAS COULD SIGNIFY A CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH BONNIES REMNANTS LOOKING STILL TO BE AFFECTING PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON THURSDAY WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT TO ITS WEST...SOME SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ESPECIALLY NEAR THE REMNANT LOW IS HIGHLY LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR THE CENTER OF WHATS LEFT OF BONNIE. MORE UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH THE NEXT INTRUSION OF COOLER AIR AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT. WHILE THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE PATTERN SHIFT IS HIGH...THE RELATIVE LOCATIONS OF FRONTAL FEATURES GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST OF THE AMPLITUDES OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE LATER OCCURRENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD DIMINISHES THE PREDICTABILITY. AT PRESENT...WOULD LIST THE FORECAST AS AVERAGE IN PREDICTABILITY PRIMARILY ON THE STRENGTH OF THE PATTERN CHANGE FORECAST. DIURNAL CONVECTION IS ALSO LIKELY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE ROCKIES. KOCIN