EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 303 AM EDT WED JUL 06 2016 VALID 12Z SAT JUL 09 2016 - 12Z WED JUL 13 2016 ...PATTERN OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE/UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT... MEDIUM RANGE FLOW FEATURES ANOMOLOUSLY AMPLIFIED MEAN TROUGHING DUG INTO THE NW/WEST AND TO A LESSER EXTENT DOWNSTREAM OVER THE MIDWEST/NERN US...WITH RIDGING OVER THE EXTREME US SRN TIER AS WELL AS BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS. THERE IS NOW BETTER CLUSTERING WITH A LEAD VIGOROUS NWRN US UPPER LOW THIS WEEKEND THAT EJECTS OVER THE N-CENTRAL US/SRN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS ALSO BECOME MORE COMPATABLE NEXT WEEK FROM THE NERN PAC TO WRN NOAM WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF A COMPACT BERING SEA UPPER LOW TO TRACK SEWD TO OFF THE PAC NW IN ABOUT A WEEK. ACCORDINGLY...THE WPC MEDIUM RANGE PRODUCT SUITE HAS BEEN PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A COMPOSITE BLEND OF THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF AND GFS/ECMWF/NAEFS ENSEMBLES. WPC CONTINUITY IS WELL MAINTAINED WITH THIS SCENARIO. ...WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS... STRONG NERN PAC UPR LOW MOST LIKELY TRACKING THROUGH THE PAC NW AND INTO W-CNTRL CANADA WILL BRING A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE NWRN AND N-CENTRAL US. SOME ACTIVITY MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY AND SPC IS MONITORING SEVERE POTENTIAL BY THE TIME THE LEADING COLD FRONT REACHES THE N-CENTRAL US. THERE WILL BE AMPLE POST-FRONTAL COOLING ACROSS THE NWRN STATES CONSIDERING THE DEPTH/TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW SO COLDEST ANOMOLIES MAY REACH 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE A LITTLE SNOW. UPSTREAM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE PAC NW MAY BRING NEW UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE PAC NW DAYS 6/7. A COMPLEX LEAD SYSTEM TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES TO THE NERN US THIS WEEKEND...WITH TRAILING FRONTS THAT SETTLE WELL SOUTHWARD OVER THE E-CENTRAL US INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR HEAT RELIEF. THE WAVY FRONTS AND MID-UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL FOCUS EPISODES OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAIN WITH SOME TRAINING POSSIBLE AS FUELED BY DEEPENED POOLED MOISTURE. PLEASE CONSULT LATEST SPC PRODUCTS FOR SEVERE THREATS. BEST POTENTIAL FOR DAILY RECORDS SHOULD BE FOR VERY WARM MIN LEAD TEMPS OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OF SUCH RECORDS LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. RAUSCH/SCHICHTEL