EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1157 AM EDT FRI AUG 05 2016 VALID 12Z MON AUG 08 2016 - 12Z FRI AUG 12 2016 ...PATTERN OVERVIEW... AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD BEGIN TO EDGE EASTWARD THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES BY NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE WITH AN INITIALLY STAGNANT UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHICH IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHILE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. ...GUIDANCE/UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT... MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48...SO THE WPC DAY 3-7 FORECAST STARTED WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS BLEND. HOWEVER...LESS WEIGHT WAS GIVEN TO THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SINCE IT CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE A FAST OUTLIER WITH PROGRESSING THE UPPER TROUGH EASTWARD TROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES LATER NEXT WEEK...WHEN COMPARED TO THE LATEST GEFS AND NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS AS WELL AS THE BULK OF THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. ALSO...IMPORTANT DETAILS OF THE RETROGRADING UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW POTENTIALLY TRACKING WESTWARD NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEXT WEEK HAVE YET TO BE RESOLVED. THE WPC FORECAST STAYED IN BETWEEN A STRONGER ECMWF/UKMET AND WEAKER GFS/CMC WITH THIS FEATURE. GERHARDT