EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1200 PM EDT WED NOV 02 2016 VALID 12Z SAT NOV 05 2016 - 12Z WED NOV 09 2016 ...PATTERN OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE/UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT... HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW OVER THE LOWER 48 THIS WEEKEND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A MEAN RIDGE EXPECTED TO STAY CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S./SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WHILE UPPER TROUGHS CONTINUE TO RELOAD OFF BOTH THE PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC COASTS. MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS LOCKED IN WITH THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CONUS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. IN PARTICULAR...MODELS OFFER VARYING SOLUTIONS WITH THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY AS IT BEGINS INTERACTING WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LOW LIFTING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND POTENTIALLY AMPLIFIES WHILE PROGRESSING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE GENERALLY COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE AND ARE NOW BOTH ADVERTISING ENERGY POSSIBLY CLOSING OFF NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY/NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD BE SUPPORTED BY THE OVERALL LONGWAVE PATTERN. THE WPC DAY 3-7 FORECAST STARTED WITH A BLEND BETWEEN THE FAIRLY AGREEABLE GFS/ECMWF AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE IN ORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME OF THE RELATIVELY SMALL SPREAD THAT STILL EXISTS WITH THE EXACT TIMING/AMPLITUDE OF THE ENERGY. GERHARDT ...WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS... WARM CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE WELL INTO THE 60S AS FAR NORTH AS THE DAKOTAS THIS WEEKEND. THIS IS EASILY 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF NOVEMBER. CONDITIONS CLOSER TO THE CLIMATOLOGY ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. GIVEN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN RESPONSE TO A PASSAGE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH. REGARDING PRECIPITATION...IT SHOULD BE A RATHER WET PERIOD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE OLYMPICS AND CASCADES. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THE BEST FETCH OF MOISTURE MAY OCCUR JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND AND POINTS NORTHWARD. ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO MOISTURE GETTING PULLED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING...BUT WEAK...UPPER TROUGH. OTHERWISE...THE OTHER THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG THE EASTWARD PUSHING FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...ANY WINTER WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMIZED ACROSS THE COUNTRY GIVEN THE CONTINUED MILD PATTERN. RUBIN-OSTER