Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 207 AM EDT Sat Jun 30 2018 Valid 12Z Tue Jul 03 2018 - 12Z Sat Jul 07 2018 ...Hot temperatures to gradually retreat westward out of the Northeast later next week... ...Overview and weather threats/highlights... Well above average temperatures (some record breaking) over the eastern Great Lakes/Northeast/Mid-Atlantic early in the week will trend westward with time as the dominant upper high (heat dome) moves southwestward toward the Rockies by next Saturday. Temperatures well into the 90s with lows in the 70s (near 80 in the urban centers DC/Philly/NYC) will trend back toward near or just above climo by next weekend. Precipitation will round the edges of the upper high, from the Pacific Northwest to the High Plains and along the Gulf Coast to the Southeast coast. Locally heavy rain will be possible with organized thunderstorm development to the north and with the weakening mid-level circulation over the Gulf Coast early in the period (especially Louisiana into southeastern Texas). ...Guidance evaluation/preferences... Latest model/ensemble blend offered a good starting point -- 18Z GFS/GEFS and 12Z ECMWF/Canadian/UKMET/ECMWF ensemble mean -- with a majority deterministic weighting through the period with good or better than average agreement. Around the upper high will be a few upper lows -- off the PacNW and Southeast coast and along the Gulf Coast -- which will spread precipitation along/downstream of their track. Consensus timing/track differences have been relatively small but continue to shift around with the latest trend to be quicker through Canada and thus with the cold front into the Great Lakes/Northeast next Thu-Sat. Off the Southeast coast, trend has generally been for a much weaker trough, if anything, to approach the coast late in the week. Fracasso WPC medium range forecasts of 500 mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation, and winter weather outlook probabilities are found at: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4