Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
134 AM EDT Sun Jul 01 2018
Valid 12Z Wed Jul 04 2018 - 12Z Sun Jul 08 2018
...Overview and weather threats/highlights...
A closed upper high over the Northeast on Wednesday will head
westward toward the Rockies by next weekend as upper troughing
over Canada dips into New England by Saturday, bringing in cooler
temperatures (back near average). Much of the west and central
states will see an increase in warmth from Thursday onward.
Precipitation will generally focus around the upper high from the
Pacific Northwest (in conjunction with an offshore weakening upper
low) across the northern tier into the Northeast as well as on the
south side of the upper high across the Gulf Coast. By next
weekend, precipitation should precede the front southeastward into
the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast.
...Guidance evaluation/preferences...
The latest model/ensemble guidance remained in excellent agreement
with the track of the upper high and good agreement with the
features around it. Given some run-to-run shifts in timing/track
of these features, a multi-model blend was utilized with a
increased weighting of ensembles by next weekend. This maintained
good continuity from the previous shift.
Fracasso
WPC medium range forecasts of 500 mb heights, surface systems,
weather grids, quantitative precipitation, and winter weather
outlook probabilities are found at:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4