Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 123 AM EDT Mon Jul 02 2018 Valid 12Z Thu Jul 05 2018 - 12Z Mon Jul 09 2018 ...Overview and weather threats/highlights... A closed upper high will settle into the Rockies by the weekend as upper troughing over Canada dips into New England by Saturday, bringing in cooler temperatures (back near average). Much of the west and central states will see an increase in warmth with above average heights over the entire lower 48 even under troughing in the east. Precipitation will generally focus around the upper high from the Pacific Northwest (in conjunction with an offshore weakening upper low) and across the northern tier into the Northeast as well as on the south side of the upper high across the Gulf Coast where temperatures will be near or just below average. By the weekend, precipitation should precede the front southeastward into the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Guidance evaluation/preferences... The latest model/ensemble guidance remained in excellent agreement with the track of the upper high and good agreement with the features around it. Given some run-to-run shifts in timing/track of these features, a multi-model blend was utilized for days 3-5 with an increased weighting of ensembles by the weekend into next week. This maintained good continuity from the previous shift. Fracasso WPC medium range forecasts of 500 mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation, and winter weather outlook probabilities are found at: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4