Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 235 AM EDT Tue Jul 03 2018 Valid 12Z Fri Jul 06 2018 - 12Z Tue Jul 10 2018 ...Overview and weather threats/highlights... An expansive upper high will again build back toward the east next week as brief troughing exits the Northeast Sunday with some showers/storms prior to its passage. Ensembles remain in great agreement on a rather zonal flow by next week with above average heights from coast to coast. This supports near to above average temperatures nearly everywhere outside the Gulf Coast region where easterly flow aloft underneath the high will support daily showers/storms that will be enhanced by an approaching (but weakening) surface cold front. In the Southwest, moisture out of the Gulf and across Mexico will try to yield some precipitation over AZ/NM (GFS/GEFS were wetter than the ECMWF/ECMWF ensembles) which have been in a serious drought. ...Guidance evaluation/preferences... A blend of the latest GFS/ECMWF/UKMET and some of the Canadian offered a good starting point for the forecast. Trend continues to be quicker across Canada with the least trough/sfc front but otherwise few changes were made from the previous shift. Increased ensemble weighting was infused for the later periods where shifts in the upper high orientation and with rotating mid-level disturbances were smoothed out. Fracasso WPC medium range forecasts of 500 mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation, and winter weather outlook probabilities are found at: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4