Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM EST Sat Feb 02 2019

Valid 12Z Tue Feb 05 2019 - 12Z Sat Feb 09 2019

...Guidance/Predictability Assessment and Weather
Highlights/Hazards...

Models and ensembles agree in showing another stormy pattern
across the lower 48 states next week. This will be highlighted
Tuesday by a deepened low pressure center exiting the Northeast
and another potent/wet storm working into California and an
unsettled/wintery West. Arctic air will spill down over the
north-central through northeastern U.S. in the wake of the
Northeast storm. An uncertain series of smaller scale impulses
will act to induce local precipitation focusing frontal waves on
the leading edge of the arctic chill. Guidance continues to be
quite data sensitive and varied with respect to subsequent
progression and phasing potential of the main California system
Wed-Fri on a general track northeastward across the central and
northeastern U.S. Despite timing issues, this storm offers a
considerable threat of heavy snow/ice in the arctic air in place
to the north of e main low track over the n-central through
northeastern states along with some threat of heavy warm sector
rains/convection. The deepened arctic airmass is slated to spread
arcoss much of the nation in the wake of this system. Given
uncertainty, the WPC medium range product suite was primarily
derived from a composite guidance solution.

Schichtel


WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation and winter weather outlook
probabilities are found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4