Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
213 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2019
Valid 12Z Sun Mar 31 2019 - 12Z Thu Apr 04 2019
...Overview and Weather Highlights/Hazards...
A lead low pressure system will exit New England Sunday as a
trailing cold front traverses the eastern seaboard, lingering
across Florida and the Gulf of Mexico. This system brings a threat
of snow for northern New England and moderate rainfall/convection
along and ahead of the front.
A series of southern stream shortwaves meanwhile progress over the
West/Southwest then eastward over the U.S. southern tier
underneath an amplfied northern stream. This may invigorate Gulf
of Mexico frontal wave genesis next week. This favors enhanced
rainfall for parts of Florida northeastward along East coast as
per latest guidance trends, albeit with uncertain subsequent
coastal low developments that could keep ample activity just
offshore. Upstream, another system will push into the West Coast
early next week which may result in a bit cooler temperatures amid
periods of moderate rain and heavier elevation snows from the
Northwest to the northern Rockies, working to the
Plains/Mississippi Valley midweek.
...Guidance Assessment/Preferences...
Guidance seems to offer reasonably similar larger scale pattern
evolutions, but less than stellar consistency with stream
interactions and timing/strength of a multitude of smaller-scale
systems embedded within the flow. Preferred a model and ensemble
composite blend to mitigate this with emphasis on the more
compatable GEFS/NAEFS/ECMWF ensemble means days 3-7.
Schichtel
Additional 3-7 Day Hazards information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation, winter weather outlook probabilities
and heat indices are at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml