Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1247 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019 Valid 12Z Sat Jun 22 2019 - 12Z Wed Jun 26 2019 ...Weather Highlights/Threats... Expect with deep layer southerly flow advecting warm air north across most areas east of the MS Valley to see heat building across the Southeast/TN Valley/Oh Valley/Appalachians, continuing up into the Northeast early next week. Expect hot warm sector temperatures under this ridge including a risk of record warm minimum values mainly for the eastern southern Plains and lower MS Valley. The systems present a threat of strong to severe/MCS convection and locally heavy rains in areas with pooling moisture/instability. The rainfall focus Sat and Sun is forecast to be from eastern KS and OK across the MS valley into the Great Lakes and central Appalachians. On Mon 24 Jun and Tue 25 Jun the showers/storms are expected to focus from east Texas across the Arklatex to the lower MS Valley, Ohio and TN Valleys and Appalachians. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The WPC medium range product suite was derived from a composite blend of compatible guidance from the 12 UTC GFS/18z GEFS and 12 UTC operational ECMWF/12z ECMWF ensemble mean guidance. This maintains good WPC continuity for the large scale evolution of systems across the country. The models agree on the large scale pattern of the initial northern Plains closed low moving north into Canada by early next week and a high amplitude southeast ridge persisting. Next week, a new closed low develops and moves southeast from offshore British Columbia into the Pacific northwest or adjacent coastal waters by the middle of next week. This persistent and slow moving circulation allows the deep layer ridge to rebuild over TX and NM. There is less spread than normal for these forecasts, lending the situation to a consensus based approach. Petersen Additional 3-7 Day Hazards information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation, winter weather outlook probabilities and heat indices are at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml