Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1156 AM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019 Valid 12Z Fri Jul 26 2019 - 12Z Tue Jul 30 2019 ...Weather Highlights/Threats and Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Latest models still indicate that eastern US upper troughing will gradually deamplify this weekend into early next week as a mid level ridge builds across Florida. A weakening front in Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico will remain a main focus for heavier convection and rainfall, with return warm/moist advection early next week allowing activity to move north across the lower MS Valley and southeast. A persistent feature in the upcoming pattern will be a closed high over the Southwest. Expect daily scattered monsoonal convection will work around the ridge over the southern Great Basin/Rockies/High Plains in upper diffluent flow, and pockets of above normal temperatures in the interior CA/OR across NV/ID/AZ. Overtop, mid-level impulses and wavy surface fronts will traverse the northern tier states from the Pacific Northwest eastward to the Great Lakes. These will enhance moisture, instability and periods of convection/MCS activity, especially from the n-central U.S. into the Midwest/Great Lakes. Teleconnections from the Southwest ridge corresponds to a trough from the Great Lakes to the lower OH Valley, where rainfall probabilities increase. Model/ensemble forecasts cluster well through the weekend, with forecast spread increasing early next week. The WPC medium range product suite was mainly derived from a blend of the 06 UTC GFS/00 UTC ECMWF days 3-5. A 06 UTC GEFS/00 UTC ECMWF ensemble mean blend was used days 6-7 amid growing system variance and uncertainty. This maintains max WPC continuity. Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazards information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation, winter weather outlook probabilities and heat indices are at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml