Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 226 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2019 Valid 12Z Tue Jul 30 2019 - 12Z Sat Aug 03 2019 ...Overview and Guidance/Predictability Assessment... An upper high will meander around the Four Corners region as troughing digs into the eastern states as well as the Pacific Northwest. The models/ensembles largely agree for the first few days of the period (Tue into Thu) and a general model blend sufficed. For later next week into next Saturday, 18Z GFS and 12Z ECMWF showed reasonable agreement though displaced a bit from the ensemble means in the northeast Pacific where the guidance has had trouble settling on a solution. Trend seems to be for a bit slower progression which favors the GFS/ECMWF more than the slightly quicker ensemble means, so shifted the forecast in that direction but with limited confidence. Downstream result may be for a bit deeper troughing and a farther southward push of a cold front into the TN Valley. ...Weather Highlights/Threats... Temperatures in the Southwest will trend cooler as monsoonal moisture increases and clouds/showers/storms expand in coverage. Convective rainfall including some locally heavier downpours/runoff issues will focus along and ahead of the frontal boundaries from the Great Lakes to the Northeast and southward to the southern Plains/lower MS Valley/Southeast. Florida may see an enhanced period of rainfall with a dissipating surface boundary over the central peninsula early next week. The Pacific Northwest will see an increased chance of rain with an approaching system later in the week. Fracasso Additional 3-7 Day Hazards information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation, winter weather outlook probabilities and heat indices are at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml