Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1202 AM EDT Mon Oct 07 2019
Valid 12Z Thu Oct 10 2019 - 12Z Mon Oct 14 2019
...N-Central Rockies to Northern Plains/Upper Midwest Snow
Threat...
...Guidance/Uncertainty Assessment...
The WPC medium range forecast suite was mainly derived from a
composite blend of well cluster guidance from the latest
GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian, GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means, and the
National Blend of Models. This forecast plan maintains great WPC
continuity in an active weather pattern with above normal forecast
predictability.
...Weather Highlights/Threats...
A strong cold front will dig through the western and central U.S.
into Thu/Fri to bring well below average temperatures through the
region. Some record values may be reached. Cooler air will tend to
moderate and spread across the eastern states over the weekend.
Along with colder temperatures, wrapback moisture and upslope flow
supports some heavy snow threat from the Rockies to the Upper
Midwest with upper closed low and surface frontal low track and
development. Ahead of the cold front, rainfall will expand and
offer a risk of locally heavy rainfall from the s-central Plains
to the mid-MS Valley/Midwest in a region of enhanced moisture
inflow return from the Gulf of Mexico. The rain threat in general
will decrease farther east as the system lifts into Canada.
Downstream, an organized coastal low off the Mid-Atlantic and New
England will meanwhile offer a significant maritime threat and
some coastal rainfall, dependent on how close the low tracks to
the coast. NHC is also monitoring this system for potential
subtropical development. Regardless, stiff easterly onshore flow
will be prevalent through southern New England into the coastal
Mid-Atlantic around its circulation.
Schichtel
Additional 3-7 Day Hazards information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation, winter weather outlook probabilities
and heat indices are at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml