Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1202 AM EDT Mon Oct 07 2019 Valid 12Z Thu Oct 10 2019 - 12Z Mon Oct 14 2019 ...N-Central Rockies to Northern Plains/Upper Midwest Snow Threat... ...Guidance/Uncertainty Assessment... The WPC medium range forecast suite was mainly derived from a composite blend of well cluster guidance from the latest GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian, GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means, and the National Blend of Models. This forecast plan maintains great WPC continuity in an active weather pattern with above normal forecast predictability. ...Weather Highlights/Threats... A strong cold front will dig through the western and central U.S. into Thu/Fri to bring well below average temperatures through the region. Some record values may be reached. Cooler air will tend to moderate and spread across the eastern states over the weekend. Along with colder temperatures, wrapback moisture and upslope flow supports some heavy snow threat from the Rockies to the Upper Midwest with upper closed low and surface frontal low track and development. Ahead of the cold front, rainfall will expand and offer a risk of locally heavy rainfall from the s-central Plains to the mid-MS Valley/Midwest in a region of enhanced moisture inflow return from the Gulf of Mexico. The rain threat in general will decrease farther east as the system lifts into Canada. Downstream, an organized coastal low off the Mid-Atlantic and New England will meanwhile offer a significant maritime threat and some coastal rainfall, dependent on how close the low tracks to the coast. NHC is also monitoring this system for potential subtropical development. Regardless, stiff easterly onshore flow will be prevalent through southern New England into the coastal Mid-Atlantic around its circulation. Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazards information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation, winter weather outlook probabilities and heat indices are at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml