Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
253 AM EDT Wed Oct 09 2019
Valid 12Z Sat Oct 12 2019 - 12Z Wed Oct 16 2019
...Pattern Overview and Guidance/Uncertainty Assessment...
An anomalously deep upper low over norther Minnesota Saturday will
slowly weaken and drift northeastward toward Hudson Bay through
the period. Pacific flow will bring one shortwave to the Pacific
Northwest by the start of the weekend and then the central U.S.
early next week, followed by another shortwave that could approach
the Northwest Tue/Wed. The potential subtropical system just off
the East Coast on Saturday is forecast to move away from New
England Sunday. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring this
area for development. Please reference their outlooks for more
information.
Overall a model/ensemble blend sufficed through the forecast
period with a majority weight to the 12Z ECMWF and its ensemble
mean next Tue/Wed. GFS runs appeared a bit too quick relative to
the multi-center ensemble spread though recent trends have been a
bit quicker.
...Weather Highlights/Threats...
Wrap-around precipitation will wind down across the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes this weekend but the tail end of the front
will linger across the Southeast. This will likely spur an
increase in rainfall as the western system organizes in the Plains
by Tuesday. This will be the focus for the potentially heaviest
rainfall through the medium range. Over the eastern Pacific, a
potential tropical system may spread some moisture across northern
Mexico into west Texas but this remains uncertain given the spread
in its track.
Record cold temperatures on Saturday will slowly moderate but
remain much colder than average over the Dakotas and
western/central Great Lakes. Above average temperatures will
precede the cold front in the east on Saturday with modestly above
normal readings persisting over the Southeast through early next
week.
Fracasso
Additional 3-7 Day Hazards information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation, winter weather outlook probabilities
and heat indices are at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml