HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 704 AM EDT MON JUL 04 2011 VALID 00Z TUE JUL 05 2011 - 00Z TUE JUL 12 2011 MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT LIGHT ISLAND TRADES TUE SHOULD INCREASE TO MODERATE FROM WED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS A LOW TO MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE BUILDS STRONGLY TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE. THERE IS EXCELLENT MULTI-MODEL/ENSEMBLE MEAN AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST. A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD ENSUE WITH LIMITED WINDWARD SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH THE HIGH TO THE NORTH...ANTICYCLONICALLY TURNING LOW LEVEL WINDS ADVECT SLOTS OF DRY AIR AROUND THE CIRCULATION. THE NEXT CHANCE OF AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE AND SHOWERS LOOK TO BE EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO WE WILL SEE IF THE 00Z ECMWF IDEA OF A WEAK SFC-850 MB WAVE PASSING THROUGH 11-12 JULY COMES TO FRUITION OR NOT. PETERSEN