HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 719 AM EDT THU OCT 06 2011 VALID 00Z FRI OCT 07 2011 - 00Z FRI OCT 14 2011 SUBTROPICAL MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST EAST-WEST ACROSS THE PACIFIC THIS PERIOD WITH ITS AXIS ALONG 30N. THE WESTERLIES WILL BE CONFINED WELL NORTH UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHEN GUIDANCE SHOWS GRADUAL MID LATITUDE ERN PACIFIC TROFFING AND A FRONT APPROACHING THE ISLANDS. INITIALLY...SURFACE RIDGING WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG AN AXIS BETWEEN 30N AND 35N WILL KEEP UP MODERATE TRADES INTO SUN. TRADES WEAKENING MON-TUE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT FROM THE N. GEFS ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT A RESIDUAL UPPER LOW MAY FORM E OF THE ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THIS FEATURE SHOULD NOT BE A MAJOR WEATHER PLAYER FOR THE ISLANDS AND SHOULD MERGE WITH/BE ELECTED BY A NEW LOW LATITUDE TROF TO THE W AROUND THU. THE COLD FRONT...FOLLOWED BY FRESH TRADES MAY PUSH INTO THE NW ISLANDS THU...BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH UPPER TROFFING W OF THE ISLANDS TO RETARD FRONTAL PASSAGE. GENERALLY STABLE CONDS SUGGESTS LIGHT WINDWARD SHOWERS...POSSIBLY INCREASING VCNTY OF THE FRONT IN ABOUT A WEEK. FLOOD