HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 700 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011 VALID 00Z SAT OCT 29 2011 - 00Z SAT NOV 05 2011 MODEL/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A COLD UPPER LOW DROPPING SSW TOWARDS THE ISLANDS....AND LINGERING THERE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIDGE ACROSS WELL TO THE N OF THE ISLANDS SUN-TUE. THE TRADES SHOULD CORRESPONDINGLY INCREASE. A BRIEF WEAKENING OF TRADES WED WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A NEW SURGE OF TRADES THU AS YET ANOTHER RE-ENFORCING PACIFIC HIGH WELL TO THE N COMES INTO PLAY. A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROF MAY BE FOUND VICINITY OF THE UPPER LOW. CONSENSUS OF MODELS/ENSEMBLES SUGGESTS THAT A POCKET OF 500MB COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LOW SHOULD BE DESTABILIZE THINGS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT +SHRA/TSRA...PERHAPS EVEN SNOW AT THE HIGHEST SUMMITS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY QPF APPEARS TO BE THE SERN ISLANDS SAT THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE BIG ISLAND. HEAVY QPF THIS WEEK OVERALL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE BIG ISLAND. FLOOD