HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 727 AM EDT SAT OCT 29 2011 VALID 00Z SUN OCT 30 2011 - 00Z SUN NOV 06 2011 MODEL/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A COLD UPPER LOW ESTABLISHING ITSELF JUST E OF THE ISLANDS...THEN REMAINING THERE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS UPPER LOW WILL WANE BUT NOT TOTALLY DISAPPEAR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIDGE ACROSS WELL TO THE N-NE OF THE ISLANDS SUN-TUE. THE TRADES SHOULD CORRESPONDINGLY INCREASE TO OCCASIONALLY BRISK LEVELS. AS THIS HIGH LANGUISHES OFF THE W COAST OF THE CONUS IT WILL BE RE-ENFORCED BY YET ANOTHER PACIFIC HIGH LATER WED INTO THU. A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROF MAY BE FOUND VICINITY OF THE UPPER LOW ALONG WITH A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN THE OTHERWISE VIGOROUS TRADE FLOW. CONSENSUS OF MODELS/ENSEMBLES/SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A POCKET OF 500MB COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LOW IS DESTABILIZING THE AMBIENT ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT +SHRA/TSRA...PERHAPS EVEN SNOW AT THE HIGHEST SUMMITS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY QPF CONTINUES TO BE THE SERN ISLANDS TODAY THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE BIG ISLAND. EXPECT MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP OVER THE NWRN ISLANDS AS THE GFS SHOWS PWS LINGERING IN THE 1.50 RANGE...A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. FLOOD