HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 613 AM EST TUE NOV 22 2011 VALID 00Z WED NOV 23 2011 - 00Z WED NOV 30 2011 MODELS AND ENSEMBLES REASONABLY AGREE ON HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE STATE WEAKENING LATER THU INTO FRI AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. FOLLOWING THE FROPA FRI NIGHT/SAT...A FRESH SURGE OF BRISK TRADES WILL AFFECT THE ISLANDS. THE GFS SHOWS GRADIENTS SLACKING OFF OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN NEXT MON. BY THEN...YET ANOTHER TROF APPROACHES THE LONGITUDE OF HAWAII TO THE N AS A SHARP TROF/CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS TO THE NE. OTHER MODELS MAINTAIN MODERATE TO BRISK TRADES ACROSS THE STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND ARE PREFERRED AT THIS POINT. EXPECT TYPICAL LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD TERRAIN....PERHAPS BRIEFLY INCREASING WITH THE FRI EVENING FROPA. RAINFALL THIS WEEK SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER THAN NORMAL....ESPECIALLY FROM SUN ONWARD AS VERY DRY AIR ENCROACHES ON THE ISLANDS FROM THE NE. FLOOD