HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 628 AM EST WED JAN 11 2012 VALID 00Z THU JAN 12 2012 - 00Z THU JAN 19 2012 MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND FORECAST SPREAD REMAINS BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK DESPITE AN ACTIVE PATTERN...BOLSTERING FORECAST CONFIDENCE. A LIGHT TRADE AND LIMITED RAINFALL PATTERN SOON ENDS AS SIGNIFICANT FLOW AMPLIFICATION OCCURS ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL PACIFIC MID-LATITUDES. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE SEWD DIGGING OF A DEVELOPING AND DESTABILIZING CLOSED LOW/TROUGH ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE THE ISLANDS. THIS WILL SWEEP A WELL DEFINED AND MOISTURE/SHOWER FOCUING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE TOMORROW. STRONG JET FLOW CONTINUES COMING IN WITH ITS CORE ALONG 30N OFF OF ASIA REACHING OUT THROUGH THE DATELINE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. EXPANSION OF THE WESTERLY CORE EASTWARD AND ASSOCIATED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPMENT JUST NW THEN NORTH OF THE STATE WILL BRING AN APPROACHING FRONT TOWARD AND DRAPED NEAR THE STATE THAT WILL ACT TO BACK LOWER LEVEL ISLAND FLOW TO A MORE MOIST SRLY ORIENTATION EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH ANOTHER THREAT FOR ENHANCED SHOWERS. SCHICHTEL