HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 623 AM EST SAT JAN 14 2012 VALID 00Z SUN JAN 15 2012 - 00Z SUN JAN 22 2012 THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM A JAPAN-PACIFIC NORTHWEST AXIS TO AN OKINAWA-CALIFORNIA AXIS OVER THE NEXT WEEK...SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTHWARD WITH TIME. WHEN COMPARING THE GUIDANCE...THE 00Z CANADIAN WAS AN AMPLIFIED/OCCASIONALLY SLOW AND SOUTHERLY OUTLIER WITH A FEW OF THE SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC...ITS NORMAL BIAS. BECAUSE OF THIS...ITS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS NEAR HAWAI'I ENDS UP THE FARTHEST SOUTH BY LATE NEXT WEEK. SINCE THE 00Z ECMWF/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS DO NOT SUPPORT THIS IDEA...CONSIDER THE 00Z CANADIAN IS A LOWER PROBABILITY ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO TO THE EXPECTED PATTERN. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTHWEST WITH TIME OUT OF THE TROPICAL NORTHEAST PACIFIC AS TROUGHING WITHIN THE WESTERLIES NORTH OF THE 50TH STATE LIFTS OUT AND IS REPLACED WITH BROAD RIDGING DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP CYCLONE SOUTHEAST OF KAMCHATKA. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR HAWAI'I IS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT FROM A MORE SOUTHERLY CHARACTER TO MORE EASTERLY WITH TIME AS THE TRADE WINDS BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. ANY RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE PAIR OF NEARBY DEEP-LAYERED CYCLONES MOVING BY TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SHOULD FADE AS THE SECOND IN THE SERIES EJECTS NORTHWARD BY WEDNESDAY...RETURNING HAWAI'I TO ITS USUAL TRADE WIND SHOWER REGIME MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. ROTH