HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 629 AM EST THU JAN 26 2012 VALID 00Z FRI JAN 27 2012 - 00Z FRI FEB 03 2012 THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOW AN OVERALL PATTERN HIGHLIGHTED BY A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CENTERED WELL E-NE OF THE STATE OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND WESTERLIES WITH AN EMBEDDED WAVETRAIN SERIES PUNCHING OFF ASIA AND ACROSS THE WRN PACIFIC BEFORE LIFTING MORE OVER THE CENTRAL THEN NE PACIFIC. OVERALL PREFER A MODEL CONCENSUS BLEND OVER THE NEXT WEEK. SERLY ISLAND TRADES IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITHIN THE WESTERLIES REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH IN SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO FORCE A FRONTAL PUSH AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS INTO THE ISLANDS BY FRI. THE FRONT AND RAINFALL FOCUS IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT BACK ACROSS THE ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND AS DYNAMIC SUPPORT WANES AND TRADES RENEW. TRADES COULD REACH MODERATE TO LOCALLY BRISK LEVELS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WESTERLIES LIFT NORTHWARD AND ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD BRIDGE BACK TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE IN A WINDWARD TERRAIN CONFINED BUT LIMITED RAINFALL PATTERN AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. LATER...THESE TRADES MAY RETURN TO MORE MODERATE LEVELS NEXT MIDWEEK AS THE SUPPORTING HIGH MAY WEAKEN WITH APPROACH OF NEW ENERGIES EMBEDDED WITH THE WESTERLIES THAT MAY DIG TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE TO THE LEE OF A BUILDING DATELINE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. SCHICHTEL