HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 548 AM EST SAT FEB 04 2012 VALID 00Z SUN FEB 05 2012 - 00Z SUN FEB 12 2012 CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE SHOWING LOWERING HEIGHTS AS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH AMPLIFIES AS IT APPROACHES THE ISLANDS FROM THE WEST ON TUE 07 FEB...WITH THE 500 MB TROUGH PASSAGE ON WED 08 FEB. A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUE/EARLY WED IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT TO MODERATE QPF. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR EAST OF THE ISLANDS ON THU 09 FEB....WITH DECREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND SINKING MOTIONS LEADING TO A DROP IN SHOWER COVERAGE/AMOUNTS. HIGH PRESSURE/HEIGHTS BUILD NORTH OF THE ISLANDS ON FRI 10 FEB. THIS WOULD LEAD TO TRADES RETURNING LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH WINDS VEERING FROM THE NORTHEAST ON FRI TO THE EAST ON SAT. THERE IS GOOD MULTI-MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN EVOLUTION. PETERSEN