HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 637 AM EST TUE FEB 21 2012 VALID 00Z WED FEB 22 2012 - 00Z WED FEB 29 2012 DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MAINTAINS GOOD LARGE-SCALE CONTINUITY IN ALLOWING THE STRONG PACIFIC JET CROSSING JAPAN TO SPLIT OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BY THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE SOUTHERN-MOST PORTION OF THE SPLIT EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED LOW NEAR OR NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THE SOLUTION SPREAD WITH THIS FEATURE IS QUITE LARGE...WITH THE 00Z GFS TO THE EAST...00Z ECMWF TO THE WEST...AND THE 00Z UKMET NEAR THE MEAN. THUS...A PREFERENCE TOWARD THE UKMET IS RECOMMENDED UNTIL THE SOLUTIONS SHOW BETTER CONVERGENCE. THE LOW'S DEVELOPMENT SHOULD LIFT THE WEAKER AND BROADER LOW CURRENT EAST OF THE ISLANDS TO THE NORTH AND DIMINISH THE TRADES AS THE HIGH NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL...SOME POTENTIALLY HEAVY...APPEAR LIKELY AS WELL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PARTICULARLY IF THE UKMET OR EVEN THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE CORRECT...WITH LESSER CHANCES IF THE CANADIAN IS CORRECT...WHICH IS ONE OF THE MOST NORTHWARD SOLUTIONS. JAMES